The Theory and Practice of Complexity Science: Epistemological Considerations for Military Operational Analysis

Though postmodernist and complexity schools of thought are not new developments, their influence on operational analysis (OA), and in particular, military OA is recent. Independent of these developments, military OA is nonetheless changing as a result of the changing nature of warfare and the consequent demands on analysts. As an illustrative example consider the developing field of Operations Other Than War (OOTW). The scope of many OOTW-type problems suggests a holistic stance that not only requires analysis of the target societies physical assets, such as technological infrastructure, but also cultural features like the role of institutions, for example. These inter-subjective aspects are not adequately treated through the adoption of the traditional Modern, positivist, OA paradigm because of their local, rather than global, character. To fully appreciate the value of these ‘softer’ aspects analysts must begin by accepting the situatedness and personal interpretations of individuals’ surroundings. Though the longstanding and powerful reductionist viewpoint has been used to address these issues, it has been found to be lacking despite being stretched to the limits with novel application. In addition to the changing subject matter the role of military OA is evolving. Now analysts are as likely to be asked to consider issues of organisational change as they are to be asked to model a force on force battle situation. This paper will take the view that common to many of the new challenges facing analysts is the apparent compositional complexity of the systems of interest. As such, the pure adoption of a viewpoint that presumes the existence of an absolute, empirically based, and objective reality is increasingly inappropriate. The consequent paradigm shift has serious and far-reaching consequences for OA in general, yet is still commensurate with the traditional viewpoint. By not wanting to (and not needing to) undermine the extensive success of military OA over the past 50 years, the paper will also explore the symbiotic relationship between the traditional viewpoint and the emerging, postmodern, craft. The paper will rely on previous texts exploring postmodernism, hermeneutics, deconstruction, and social